Jude
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Post by Jude on Dec 9, 2018 1:34:33 GMT 1
Instead of hijacking one of the other threads I thought I'd start another one.
I managed to find some images of all the cards, so no more placeholder text. I also added in the little pictures in the list of perks, total cards in your deck, and the average modifier.
To calculate the average modifier I ignored the x2, Miss, and rolling cards. Rolling +1s still add to the amount but they don't count as a card in the deck. I decided to count Blesses and Curses as +2 and -2. That way they can be numerically accounted for. It feels like a better solution than ignoring them. Plus there are alternate rules to handle them like that anyway, and if you are doing the default top card attack that is the amount you are double/missing anyway.
The hard question is how would I go about calculating the odds for Advantage and Disadvantage? Right now the deck is just an array and I add up the total and divide it by the length (minus rolling cards). But figuring out all the possibilities of drawing two cards at once seems much trickier.
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Jude
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Posts: 111
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Post by Jude on Dec 10, 2018 1:34:38 GMT 1
So I manually did the math for having disadvantage on the starting deck. Advantage is going to be harder because of rolling modifiers. Here's the odds for disadvantage:
- -2/Miss 19.474%
- -1 39.474%
- +0 30%
- +1 10.526%
- +2/x2 0.526%
I'm pretty sure I did the math right, just a lot of multiplying fractions. I think I can figure out a good algorithm to calculate it the way I did and then it should work on any cards you have in the deck. I'm still baffled trying to think about how to begin calculating advantage with rolling cards though.
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Post by lemmingrad on Dec 10, 2018 2:30:35 GMT 1
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Jude
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Posts: 111
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Post by Jude on Dec 12, 2018 21:25:42 GMT 1
Thanks!
So I got disadvantage done. It wasn't too bad since you ignore rolling cards.
Advantage is close to accurate but still needs some work. It's accurate if your deck doesn't have any rolling cards or if you were to only draw one of them with a regular card.
In the regular average rolling cards can add value to your deck without increasing the size. The problem is with advantage they do count as adding to your deck size, at least kind of. It they either did or didn't it would be easy. The amount of possible combinations you could potentially draw with rolling and advantage is a way bigger number than either of the other averages but it also makes the loops and trying to average all of those possibilities too much for my brain.
I'll sleep on it. Maybe I'll wake up and know the answer.
Looking at the data has been interesting though. The value of dis/advantage makes sense when looking at a whole deck but in real life situations how much it helps/hurts varies a crazy amount depending on what is left in your deck. Which makes sense, I'd just never thought about it before.
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Post by Plum on Dec 13, 2018 12:30:34 GMT 1
If you're doing this computationally, can you just brute force it? Create a probability tree that is literally every single card combination and then average everything? Obviously that would be an absolutely enormous tree as the double rolling modifiers will spark entire regular trees of their own.
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Jude
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Posts: 111
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Post by Jude on Dec 14, 2018 1:37:51 GMT 1
That's what I did for the disadvantage. But it's simpler because it is only two loops deep. I guess I can just write some kind of conditional to keep adding loops through the remaining cards as long as they keep drawing rolling ones. I'll try it this weekend with counter to see how many combinations it does. The default deck is only 380, I think the brute has the biggest deck, with all the cards added it has just over 1,200.
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